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Tropical Storm Erika of August 2015 was the deadliest natural disaster in Dominica since Hurricane David in 1979. The fifth tropical cyclone and fifth named storm of the season, Erika developed from a westward-moving tropical wave while well east of the Lesser Antilles. Despite favorable conditions, the system failed to intensify significantly and continued to move generally westward. Erika instead became disorganized over the next few days, prior to encountering stronger wind shear. Contrary to predictions of a northwesterly recurvature, the cyclone persisted on a westerly course and passed through the Leeward Islands just north of Guadeloupe on August 27. Unfavorable conditions in the Caribbean Sea prevented Erika's intensity from attaining maximum sustained winds higher than 50 mph (85 km/h). Late on August 28, the storm made landfall in Dominican Republic near the border of Barahona and Pedernales provinces. Although the cyclone re-emerged into the Caribbean early the following morning, Erika did not re-organize, and after crossing the Guantánamo Province of Cuba, it degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Several Leeward Islands experienced heavy rainfall during the passage of Erika, especially Dominica. There, of precipitation fell at Canefield Airport, causing catastrophic mudslides and flooding. Hundreds of homes were left uninhabitable and entire villages were flattened. With at least 31 deaths, Erika is regarded as the deadliest natural disaster in Dominica since Hurricane David in 1979. Overall, the island nation was left with hundreds of millions in damage and was set back approximately 20 years in terms of development. In Guadeloupe, heavy rainfall in the vicinity of Basse-Terre caused flooding and mudslides, forcing roads to temporarily close. Approximately 200,000 people in Puerto Rico were left without electricity. The island experienced at least $20 million in agricultural damage. In the Dominican Republic, a weather station in Barahona measured of rain, including in a single hour. About 823 homes suffered damage and 7,345 people were displaced. Five people died in Haiti, four from a weather-related traffic accident and one from a landslide. Total damage from Erika is estimated to be over $500 million (2015 USD), with $482.8 million in Dominica alone. ==Meteorological history== On August 20, 2015, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began monitoring a tropical wave over western Africa, near the Atlantic shore. The disorganized system emerged over the Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands later that day. Moving quickly west, the system brushed the Cape Verde Islands to the south on August 22. Structural improvement was slow to take place, with a concentrated area of low pressure later developing within the wave on August 23 while it was situated roughly 500 mi (805 km) west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Organization of the low improved throughout the day as environmental conditions favored tropical cyclogenesis. Late on August 24, the system acquired gale-force winds but continued to lack a closed circulation which prevented classification as a tropical cyclone. Following an ASCAT pass early on August 25 which revealed a well-defined circulation, the system was designated as Tropical Storm Erika at 03:00 UTC while situated 955 mi (1,535 km) east of the Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were assessed at 45 mph (75 km/h). Located south of a strong ridge, the system tracked briskly west.〔 At the time of Erika's classification, forecast models diverged significantly on the potential future of Erika. Statistical guidance and the HWRF depicted a hurricane while the ECMWF and GFS showed a weaker system due to increasing wind shear. The models that intensified the storm indicated a more northerly track while those that kept it weaker had the system continuing along a westward course. Accordingly, the NHC noted low confidence in their five-day forecast for Erika.〔 Throughout August 25 and into early August 26, the convective organization of the system fluctuated, periodically leaving the center of circulation exposed. Around 09:00 UTC on August 27, the disorganized center of Erika passed between Guadeloupe and Antigua. Despite continued shear, Erika managed to intensify slightly. Aircraft reconnaissance fixed pressures of 1001 and 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.56 and 29.62 inHg) while surface winds were estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h). This constituted as the peak intensity of the cyclone. Convection remained poorly organized and mostly confined to eastern portions of the cyclone as it entered the eastern Caribbean Sea.〔 Multiple circulation centers were noted during the overnight of August 27–28, all rotating around a broad general center. One such center moved over St. Croix and produced gale-force gusts. Environmental conditions ahead of the storm became increasingly hostile, and forecasters at the NHC continued to note unusually high uncertainty in their forecasts. The storm steadily lost organization as it approached the Dominican Republic, with the circulation barely closed by the afternoon of August 28. The strongest winds persisted well east of Erika's center within the deepest convection. Around 21:00 UTC, the storm made landfall along the southeastern coast of the Dominican Republic. The disheveled cyclone emerged over the Windward Passage early on August 29. Between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC, the poorly defined center of Erika struck eastern Cuba. Around 13:30 UTC, aircraft reconnaissance investigated the system twice, and found no closed circulation both times. Judged by this, the National Hurricane Center determined that Erika opened into a trough while still off the coast of Cuba. Accordingly, the NHC issued their final advisory. The remnants of the system then caused torrential rain in Florida and surrounding areas. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Tropical Storm Erika」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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